Matched betting
Hedge calculator
A hedge closes a bet you have already placed. The price has moved since you struck it, so a second bet on the other side of the same market can make every result settle at the same amount. This calculator gives you the stake for that second bet, the money you need available to place it, and what the position comes to whichever way the event goes.
There are two ways to close out and they are not the same bet. Laying at an exchange is a bet against your own selection: the stake is what you collect if the selection loses, and the money that must sit in the account is the liability, which at long prices is several times the stake. Backing the opposing outcome at a bookmaker risks only the stake, but it needs a price covering every remaining result — in a three-way market a single opposing price leaves the draw uncovered. Instructions that mix the two send people to an exchange with numbers derived for a bookmaker back, which is a different structure with a different answer.
Inputs
The exchange lay charges commission and ties up liability. The bookmaker back risks only its stake.
What you staked on the bet that is already open.
The price you took, not the price now.
The price available to lay your selection now.
Charged on the net winnings of the lay bet. Varies by exchange and sometimes by market.
Result
- Lay stake at the exchangeThe amount you collect, less commission, if your original selection loses
- €40.27
- LiabilityMust be available in the exchange account, and is lost if your original selection wins
- €80.54
- If the original selection wins
- €19.46
- If the exchange lay wins
- €19.46
- Position, either wayBoth results settle at this figure once stakes are rounded to whole cents
- €19.46
Figures assume the lay is matched in full at the price shown. Exchange prices move, large lays can be matched only in part or at a worse price, and a commission discount or a higher rate on some markets changes the result. If the event is voided the two bets may not cancel each other out.
How this is calculated
exchange lay: hedge stake = (S x B) / (L - c) bookmaker back: hedge stake = (S x B) / P
S is the original stake, B the odds you took, L the current lay price, c the commission rate as a fraction, and P the price on the opposing outcome. Both forms aim at the same target: make S x B, the return on the bet you already hold, the return you receive whatever happens. Laying, the exchange pays you the lay stake less commission when your selection loses, so the stake must be sized against L - c rather than L; the liability you owe if the selection wins is (L - 1) x lay stake. Backing out, the opposing bet must simply return S x B on its own, so its stake is that target divided by P, and there is no liability at all. To check the result by hand, work out both outcomes: for the lay, S x (B - 1) minus the liability against the lay stake less commission minus S; for the back, S x B minus the sum of the two stakes, on either result. A balanced hedge makes those two figures the same to within a cent of rounding.
Worked example
A EUR 20 bet struck at 6.00. The selection has since shortened to 3.00, and the same position is closed two ways for comparison.
- 01The open bet returns 20 x 6.00 = EUR 120 if it wins, a EUR 100 profit on the EUR 20 staked.
- 02Exchange, laying at 3.00 with 2% commission: lay stake = (20 x 6.00) / (3.00 - 0.02) = 120 / 2.98 = EUR 40.27.
- 03Liability on that lay = 40.27 x (3.00 - 1) = EUR 80.54, which must be in the exchange account.
- 04If the selection wins: +EUR 100 at the bookmaker, less the EUR 80.54 liability = +EUR 19.46.
- 05If it loses: the lay pays 40.27 less 2% commission = EUR 39.46, less the EUR 20 original stake = +EUR 19.46. The two match, so the position settles at EUR 19.46 either way.
- 06Bookmaker, backing the only other outcome at 1.50: stake = (20 x 6.00) / 1.50 = EUR 80.00, with no liability beyond that stake.
- 07Either result now returns EUR 120 against EUR 100 staked in total (EUR 20 originally, EUR 80 now) = +EUR 20.00.
- 08The bookmaker route is EUR 0.54 better here, and that gap is the commission on the lay. At a shorter opposing price, or with a draw in the market, the comparison reverses.
Questions
Should I lay at an exchange or back the opposing outcome?
Compare the figure each one produces at the prices actually available, then check what each demands of you. The exchange charges commission but only needs the liability, and it covers every other result in one bet. The bookmaker back risks no more than its stake, but it needs a price on every remaining outcome and the bookmaker margin is already inside that price. Neither is generally better — it depends on the two prices in front of you.
Why does commission only appear for the exchange?
Exchange commission is deducted from the net winnings of the lay bet, so it reduces what that bet pays you and has to enter the stake calculation directly — the denominator is the lay price minus the commission rate. A bookmaker charges no commission because its margin is built into the price you are quoted instead.
The market has three outcomes. Can I still back out at a bookmaker?
Only if you cover all of them. This calculator takes one opposing price, which fits a two-way market such as a tennis match, a handicap, or an over/under line. In a football 1X2 market, backing the opposite team leaves the draw open, and a draw loses both bets. Laying at an exchange covers every other result in a single bet, which is why it is usually the simpler close-out in three-way markets.
Why did my real position differ from the figure shown?
The most common reasons are the hedge being matched at a worse price than quoted, or only in part, which leaves the position partly open; a commission rate different from the one entered; and voided or abandoned events, where the bookmaker leg and the exchange leg do not always settle the same way. Stake limits and account restrictions can also stop the hedge going on at the size the calculation assumes. The output here is the arithmetic of the prices you typed, not a prediction of how the bets will be filled or settled.
Related calculators
These calculators are information tools. They describe the arithmetic of the prices you enter — they are not advice, and they do not predict outcomes. Betting involves risk. 18+ only. If gambling is causing you harm, support is available from Peluuri.