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Cash out vs hedge calculator
Cash-out settles an open bet early for an amount the bookmaker chooses. Hedging settles the same position by taking the opposite side at an exchange. Both lock in a result; they rarely lock in the same result.
The difference is margin. A cash-out offer is the value of the hedge with a cut taken out, and the size of that cut is not disclosed anywhere in the interface. This calculator computes what hedging would return, compares it to the offer, and expresses the gap as the percentage the bookmaker is holding back.
Inputs
Shorter than the price you took means the position has moved in your favour.
The total amount returned, including your original stake — the figure shown on the bookmaker button.
Result
- Verdict
- Hedging pays more
- Hedging returnsLay €16.78 at 3.00, liability €33.56
- €6.44
- Cash-out returns€16.00 back, less the €10.00 staked
- €6.00
- Advantage of hedging
- €0.44
- Margin in the cash-out offerHow much of the hedge value the bookmaker is holding back
- 2.68%
Cash-out is instant and certain; hedging needs the exchange price to still be there when you get to it, and enough money matched at that price. That certainty has real value, particularly close to or during an event, and it is not captured in the numbers above. Bookmakers can also suspend or reprice cash-out without notice.
How this is calculated
advantage = hedge locked-in result - (cash-out offer - original stake)
Both routes are converted to the same measure — net profit on the position — so they can be compared directly. The hedge side uses the standard lay-stake calculation (original stake x original odds, divided by the lay price net of commission) and reports the worst of the two outcomes. The cash-out side is simply the amount returned minus what you staked, because the offer includes your stake back. The margin percentage expresses the gap as a share of the total the hedge would have returned, which is the like-for-like comparison: it is the proportion of the position's value the bookmaker keeps for settling it early.
Worked example
A EUR 10 bet struck at 5.00. The selection is now trading at 3.00 to lay, the exchange charges 2%, and the bookmaker offers EUR 16.00 to cash out.
- 01Hedging: lay stake = (10 x 5.00) / (3.00 - 0.02) = EUR 16.78, with a liability of EUR 33.56.
- 02If the selection wins: EUR 40 profit at the bookmaker less the EUR 33.56 liability = EUR 6.44.
- 03If it loses: the lay pays EUR 16.78 less 2% commission = EUR 16.44, against the EUR 10 stake = EUR 6.44.
- 04So hedging guarantees EUR 6.44 either way.
- 05Cash-out: EUR 16.00 returned less the EUR 10 staked = EUR 6.00 profit.
- 06Hedging is EUR 0.44 better, which means the offer holds back about 2.7% of the position's value.
Questions
Is cash-out ever the better option?
Yes. When the exchange is illiquid, when the price you would need is not actually available in size, or when the event is in play and prices are moving faster than you can act, the certainty is worth paying for. The calculator prices the arithmetic; it cannot price your ability to execute.
Why is the bookmaker offer usually lower than the hedge value?
Because cash-out is a product the bookmaker prices, not a neutral settlement. It is built from their own current odds with a margin applied on both sides of the position, so it embeds their overround twice. That is a commercial decision rather than a fault, but it is not disclosed.
Does the exchange commission change the comparison much?
It reduces the hedge side, so a higher commission narrows the gap and can flip the verdict on a marginal offer. It is included in the calculation above, which is why the commission field matters — comparing an offer against a commission-free hedge would overstate the case for hedging every time.
What if the position has moved against me?
The same comparison holds, but both figures are losses and the question becomes which loss is smaller. Bookmaker cash-out offers on losing positions tend to carry a wider margin than on winning ones, so the gap is often larger, not smaller.
Related calculators
These calculators are information tools. They describe the arithmetic of the prices you enter — they are not advice, and they do not predict outcomes. Betting involves risk. 18+ only. If gambling is causing you harm, support is available from Peluuri.