Matched betting
Free bet calculator (stake returned)
A stake-returned free bet pays the full return if the selection wins — the winnings and the token value together. That makes the amount you have to cover on the exchange the same as it would be for a bet you paid for, while the losing side costs you nothing at the bookmaker, because none of your own money was staked.
This calculator gives you the lay stake that equalises the two outcomes, the liability the exchange will hold, and what the token settles at either way. It also shows the same token priced as stake-not-returned, so the difference between the two kinds of free bet is a number on the page rather than a claim.
Inputs
The face value of the token, as the bookmaker states it.
The price you use the free bet at.
The price available to lay the same selection.
Charged on the net winnings of the lay bet. Varies by exchange and by market.
Result
- Lay stakePlace this on the exchange against the same selection
- €24.13
- Liability at the exchangeMoney that must be available in the exchange account
- €101.35
- If the bookmaker selection winsFull return from the free bet, less the exchange liability
- €23.65
- If the exchange selection winsLay winnings after commission; nothing of your own was staked at the bookmaker
- €23.65
- Value retainedThe lower of the two outcomes above, from a €25.00 token
- €23.65
- RetentionRetained value as a percentage of the face value
- 94.60%
- Same token if it were stake-not-returned75.64% retention, on a lay stake of €19.30 — shown for comparison only
- €18.91
Both figures assume the free bet and the lay are matched at the prices shown. Prices move between the two legs, exchange liquidity can leave the lay partly unmatched, a void event can consume the token without a settled result, and commission rates differ by account. Check the bookmaker terms for the token type before sizing the lay: using this setting on a stake-not-returned free bet lays too much.
How this is calculated
lay stake = (F x B) / (L - c) [stake not returned: (F x (B - 1)) / (L - c)]
F is the face value of the free bet, B the back price, L the lay price and c the commission rate as a fraction. Because the stake is returned, the bookmaker pays the full F x B if the selection wins, so that is what the lay has to cover — the same numerator as a bet you paid for. What differs from a paid bet is the other side: none of your own money was staked, so if the exchange selection wins nothing is deducted for the token. Commission is charged on the lay bet's net winnings, which reduces the effective lay price by exactly c, hence the denominator L - c. To check the result by hand: liability is the lay stake x (L - 1); the bookmaker-wins outcome is F x B minus that liability; the exchange-wins outcome is the lay stake x (1 - c). Those last two should agree to within a cent or two, since stakes are whole cents and liability is rounded up.
Worked example
A EUR 25 stake-returned free bet used at 5.00 and laid at 5.20 on an exchange charging 2% commission — then the same token priced as stake-not-returned.
- 01The token is EUR 25 at 5.00. Because the stake is returned, the bookmaker pays EUR 125 if the selection wins.
- 02The equalising denominator is the lay price net of commission: 5.20 - 0.02 = 5.18.
- 03Lay stake = (25 x 5.00) / 5.18 = EUR 24.13. Liability = 24.13 x 4.20 = EUR 101.35, rounded up.
- 04If the selection wins: EUR 125 from the bookmaker, less the EUR 101.35 liability = EUR 23.65.
- 05If it loses: the lay stake of EUR 24.13 less 2% commission = EUR 23.65, and nothing was risked at the bookmaker.
- 06Either way the token settles at about EUR 23.65 — 94.60% of its EUR 25 face value.
- 07The same EUR 25 token as stake-not-returned would pay only the EUR 100 of winnings, so the lay stake is EUR 19.30 and the position settles at about EUR 18.91 — 75.64% of face value, EUR 4.74 less than the stake-returned version.
Questions
Why is a stake-returned free bet worth so much more?
The bookmaker pays the full return rather than just the winnings. In the worked example that is EUR 125 instead of EUR 100 on the same EUR 25 token, and almost all of the extra survives the hedge: 94.60% retained against 75.64%. The gap is widest at short prices, where the returned stake is a large share of the payout — at a back price of 1.50 with the same 2% commission the two settings are roughly 87% and 29% of face value.
Are stake-returned free bets common?
No. Most bookmaker tokens are stake-not-returned, and stake-returned ones turn up mainly in occasional retention offers, refunds and loyalty schemes. The terms decide it, not the wording of the advert, so read them before choosing a setting here. Sizing a stake-not-returned token with the stake-returned formula lays roughly B/(B-1) times too much and leaves the position unbalanced against you if the selection loses.
What about promotions described as "bonus funds"?
Those often behave like neither. Bonus funds are typically credited as a balance you can stake in parts, and may carry a wagering requirement before anything can be withdrawn, expire after a fixed period, be limited to certain markets or minimum prices, or convert to withdrawable money only as winnings. This calculator models one token settled by a single bet, so it does not describe a balance with a rollover attached.
Why might the real result differ from the figure shown?
The usual causes are the lay being matched at a longer price than quoted, or only partly matched because the exchange lacks liquidity at that price; the bookmaker price shortening before the token is used; commission differing from the rate entered; the event being voided, which can consume the free bet without producing a settled result; and stake ceilings or account restrictions applied by either side. The output is the arithmetic of the prices you enter, not a forecast of how the bets will be filled.
Related calculators
These calculators are information tools. They describe the arithmetic of the prices you enter — they are not advice, and they do not predict outcomes. Betting involves risk. 18+ only. If gambling is causing you harm, support is available from Peluuri.